Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52964.042042 56145.630999 59335.290546 62770.356864 66362.551246 70005.539579 73976.727423
2024-10-20 47488.843985 52310.271839 57288.903516 62805.607336 68738.928718 74920.018360 81837.557574
2024-10-27 43433.953389 49326.762930 55555.471824 62612.554128 70368.524660 78615.271641 88029.016879
2024-11-03 41144.363476 47919.846334 55220.225177 63642.397822 73061.190578 83240.552540 95043.495854
2024-11-10 39143.110546 46614.305217 54800.940433 64395.300115 75287.370759 87224.382815 101250.446349
2024-11-17 37223.921151 45240.079883 54159.585716 64762.548688 76962.984397 90501.177928 106596.906823
2024-11-24 35319.133563 43752.646403 53271.976450 64738.301534 78097.125400 93090.533192 111108.441473
2024-12-01 33819.319857 42642.630728 52734.563613 65038.630825 79536.722536 95977.638182 115926.862752
2024-12-08 32322.295572 41452.706789 52028.766552 65072.194692 80606.763107 98394.727714 120174.321117
2024-12-15 31451.019547 40961.712005 52105.014119 65990.932289 82687.969690 101972.883213 125775.262466
2024-12-22 30075.604164 39791.891178 51309.458287 65812.913554 83421.535507 103936.279554 129460.007083
2024-12-29 29452.346083 39514.916090 51566.382103 66882.587340 85635.587232 107649.115922 135228.469383
2025-01-05 28548.013482 38865.446265 51355.656846 67382.102017 87176.749978 110594.389010 140142.731444
2025-01-12 27478.785737 37967.486211 50803.525870 67432.788408 88152.025772 112853.950872 144243.978554
2025-01-19 26360.276698 36962.519365 50077.941139 67231.178286 88787.376188 114682.608284 147816.758855
2025-01-26 25907.619660 36796.533351 50393.002304 68321.767689 91019.406715 118463.444551 153786.810293
2025-02-02 25354.364259 36474.085331 50488.347052 69118.661905 92876.731160 121786.870489 159212.680569
2025-02-09 24656.794598 35933.348315 50279.396242 69507.298015 94207.050080 124455.407580 163839.506319
2025-02-16 23822.439635 35179.763403 49767.369659 69481.646052 94993.450886 126437.397027 167615.053944
2025-02-23 23174.945575 34655.040636 49534.073394 69799.429994 96206.001566 128948.339491 172057.225259
2025-03-02 22447.006768 33995.411808 49100.191873 69834.943605 97040.805900 130976.823308 175897.163937
2025-03-09 22124.387879 33881.598052 49382.600741 70806.965959 99086.939024 134545.938145 181699.461278
2025-03-16 21370.783609 33143.186514 48804.926194 70618.634488 99607.420606 136166.644444 185034.750489